Comments on: Yes, You Are (Maybe) Overconfident

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By: Estimation: why is it inaccurate and how can it be fixed? | NiNeTY-7

Estimation: why is it inaccurate and how can it be fixed? | NiNeTY-7 — Fri, 24 Jul 2015 09:37:03 +0000

[…] experiments give similar results: 218 people took the calibration quiz that asked the subjects to give 90% confidence intervals, […]

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By: Dave

Dave — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 13:57:56 +0000

Here’s my problem with this test. 1.) There exists questions that are directly misleading. For example, the I’m betting the average gestation period for any animal chosen at random is no where near 645 days. Thus since I know nothing about animals I pick a lower value based on the fact that many animals will have a lower gestation period (I may in this case be correct in my 90% confidence interval, note I actually put 700 as my upper threshold so got the question correct). Secondly, I think there is a psychological effect going on here. I don’t want to appear stupid if my upper bound value is MILES from the right answer. That being said I still believe people are overconfident.

By: Antony

Antony — Tue, 06 Jul 2010 05:21:48 +0000

From the data table, I suggest the test result could be better interpreted if we remove data where the true answer is outside the min and max. When no one in the test make a correct guess, it is not about confidence. It could only show the question asked did not fall into their knowledge and the answer entered is a blind-guess.

By: Cerebral Mastication » Blog Archive » I don’t even know how wrong I am!

Mon, 12 Apr 2010 15:24:37 +0000

[…] I didn’t know the answer. I’m not the only owe who struggled with this test. In their summary of results I fall in the 76th percentile. Hey, I’m above average… or at least above the median. […]