Prediction Without Markets

Thursday, January 14, 2010
By Sharad Goel
photo-finish

In the 2008 Summer Olympics Usain Bolt ran 100 meters in 9.69 seconds, earning the gold medal and garnering the international attention that comes with being the "fastest man in the world." While Bolt became a household name, his competitors didn't fare nearly as well: far fewer people... »

Scroogenomics vs Ulterior Motives (and Other Justifications for Gift Giving)

Thursday, December 31, 2009
By dreeves
scrooge vs santa

As a poser economist (as Jeff Ely calls me), I love to complain about the social inefficiency of gift giving. It's a terrible idea, guys! We waste 13 billion dollars a year on it! But I do appreciate that I have a tendency to pooh-pooh social conventions far too... »

What Can Search Predict?

Monday, November 30, 2009
By Sharad Goel
moviesearch

Statistical wisdom is sometimes found in unusual places. Take, for example, the following exchange in, “Whip It,” a story of roller-derby loving misfits: Team: (chanting, after a game) We're number two! We're number two! Coach: You guys came in second out of two teams. Team: Woo! So what’s the moral? Well, there's been a fair amount... »


Precious, Precious Daylight

Saturday, October 31, 2009
By dreeves
piggy

Tomorrow, after-work or after-school activities that require daylight come to an abrupt end for most of us in the US and Canada.  (Remember to "fall back" tonight!) There seems to be a lot of misdirected vitriol surrounding daylight saving time... »

Grammatical Interlude: The Two Acceptable Uses of Quotation Marks

Wednesday, September 30, 2009
By dreeves

Grammatical prescriptivism annoys me to no end. (No ending sentences with prepositions? Ridiculous! Don't split infinitives? Poppycock!) Well, except when I do it... There are exactly two valid uses of quotation marks: when you mean something literally, and when you... »

Anatomy of the Long Tail

Monday, August 31, 2009
By Sharad Goel
longtail

I admit I'm a movie snob. I'm less likely to watch blockbusters about toys gone wild that open on 4000+ screens than tales of food gone wild that open on 50... »