Tag Archive
Yes, You Are (Maybe) Overconfident
218 of you took our calibration quiz, not counting the 10% of submissions that had to be thrown out for not being complete or giving ranges with the min greater than the max or other sanity check failures. (Here's the raw data.) The bad news is that you're terrible at making 90% confidence... »
Are You Overconfident?
We shall now find out if Messy Matters readers are smarter than Mechanical Turkers. For each of the questions below, provide a numerical range that you are 90% sure contains the correct answer. In particular, if you have “no idea” then give a very wide range; and if you happen to be... »
Prediction Without Markets
In the 2008 Summer Olympics Usain Bolt ran 100 meters in 9.69 seconds, earning the gold medal and garnering the international attention that comes with being the "fastest man in the world." While Bolt became a household name, his competitors didn't fare nearly as well: far fewer people... »
What Can Search Predict?
Statistical wisdom is sometimes found in unusual places. Take, for example, the following exchange in, “Whip It,” a story of roller-derby loving misfits: Team: (chanting, after a game) We're number two! We're number two! Coach: You guys came in second out of two teams. Team: Woo! So what’s the moral? Well, there's been a fair amount... »
High-Frequency Trading and the Robot-Led Holocaust
Michael Wellman launched a blog this week. Yesterday he made an excellent point about market efficiency. Tyler Cowen had pooh-poohed the problem of high-frequency trading. Mike set him straight and suggested an elegant solution to the problem, namely call markets. But what about the value of... »
