218 of you took our calibration quiz, not counting the 10% of submissions that had to be thrown out for not being complete or giving ranges with the min greater than the max or other sanity check failures. (Here's the raw data.) The bad news is that you're terrible at making 90% confidence... »
Archive for March, 2010
Yes, You Are (Maybe) Overconfident
Wednesday, March 31st, 2010
Tags: calibration, decision theory, overcoming bias, overconfidence, prediction, psychology, rationality, wisdom of crowds
Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments »
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Sharad Goel and Daniel Reeves work in the Microeconomics and Social Systems (MESS) Group at Yahoo! Research. Kelly Savage illustrates the blog. Twitter updates at twitter.com/msymtrs
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