Tag Archive
(More Than) A Penny Saved is a Penny Wasted, In Which I Trivialize the Entire Industry of Financial Planning
Prescript: This article is by popular demand, having won our meta poll at the beginning of the year. I predict three categories of reactions to it: (1) This is obvious. (2) This is obviously wrong. (3) This is just the rationalization I needed to keep doing what I’m doing! If there’s a fourth category... »
Car Insurance and an Ear Full of Cider
Yesterday Decision Science News asked “Should you buy car insurance?” By which they mean collision insurance, liability insurance being required by law in these parts. I’m shocked and appalled that decision scientists could even ask such a thing. Actually, it’s a good question with some legitimate subtleties. I just happen to have an unreasonably strong opinion about... »
How To Do What You Want: Akrasia and Self-Binding
UPDATE: A revised version of this article now appears at blog.beeminder.com/akrasia. Preface: I love dog food, metaphorically speaking, of course. This article is about forcing oneself to do what one wants to do and I, among other things, want a new Messy Matters article to go out no less often than the... »
Yes, You Are (Maybe) Overconfident
218 of you took our calibration quiz, not counting the 10% of submissions that had to be thrown out for not being complete or giving ranges with the min greater than the max or other sanity check failures. (Here's the raw data.) The bad news is that you're terrible at making 90% confidence... »
Are You Overconfident?
We shall now find out if Messy Matters readers are smarter than Mechanical Turkers. For each of the questions below, provide a numerical range that you are 90% sure contains the correct answer. In particular, if you have “no idea” then give a very wide range; and if you happen to be... »
