Tag Archive
Yes, You Are (Maybe) Overconfident
218 of you took our calibration quiz, not counting the 10% of submissions that had to be thrown out for not being complete or giving ranges with the min greater than the max or other sanity check failures. (Here's the raw data.) The bad news is that you're terrible at making 90% confidence... »
Are You Overconfident?
We shall now find out if Messy Matters readers are smarter than Mechanical Turkers. For each of the questions below, provide a numerical range that you are 90% sure contains the correct answer. In particular, if you have “no idea” then give a very wide range; and if you happen to be... »
Beating a Sunk Horse
Here are what I believe are fairly definitive answers to the sunk cost quiz questions. But of course feel free to take issue in the comments. SCENE: You have a non-refundable flight but now the opportunity to road trip with some friends to your destination has come up. Which of the following are rational... »
Hyper-Correcting for the Sunk-Cost Fallacy
Here's a classic litmus test for the sunk cost fallacy: You bought a ticket for a show. The night arrives and you just don't feel like going. Do you go anyway, so as not to have wasted the money on the ticket? Probably you shouldn't. Your current decisions should not be influenced by money that is... »