Archive for 2010

Are You Overconfident?

Sunday, February 28th, 2010
Are You Overconfident?

We shall now find out if Messy Matters readers are smarter than Mechanical Turkers. For each of the questions below, provide a numerical range that you are 90% sure contains the correct answer. In particular, if you have “no idea” then give a very wide range; and if you happen to be... »

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments »

Prediction Without Markets

Thursday, January 14th, 2010
Prediction Without Markets

In the 2008 Summer Olympics Usain Bolt ran 100 meters in 9.69 seconds, earning the gold medal and garnering the international attention that comes with being the "fastest man in the world." While Bolt became a household name, his competitors didn't fare nearly as well: far fewer people... »

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Uncategorized | 14 Comments »