We shall now find out if Messy Matters readers are smarter than Mechanical Turkers. For each of the questions below, provide a numerical range that you are 90% sure contains the correct answer. In particular, if you have “no idea” then give a very wide range; and if you happen to be... »
Archive for February, 2010
Are You Overconfident?
Sunday, February 28th, 2010
Tags: calibration, decision theory, overconfidence, prediction, rationality, wisdom of crowds
Posted in Uncategorized | 10 Comments »
About
Sharad Goel (@5harad) and Daniel Reeves (@dreev) are present and past members of the Microeconomics and Social Systems (MESS) Group at Yahoo! Research. Kelly Savage illustrates the blog.
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