Olympic Records

Sunday, September 16, 2012
By Jake Hofman

runners through the ages

This is a guest post by Jake Hofman, part of the original MESS in Messy Matters and now a researcher at Microsoft Research – New York City. We’re not sure where Jake’s own PRs would appear on the charts below but he crushed both Sharad and Dan this summer in the NYC Triathlon.

A recent New York Times feature compared the performance of Olympic medalists across time, highlighting, for example, how far back the 1896 gold medalist would have been if he were to have raced against Usain Bolt in this year’s 100 meter olympic event. Having seen the Times’ impressive visualization I wanted to play with the data myself, and so I scraped Olympic records for each sport over the past century from Sports Reference, a terrific site run by just a handful of folks who collect all kinds of fun information. [1]

While the Times looked at the absolute distance gap between current and past competitors within events, I was curious about the relative performance of medalists across different sports and events. For example, how much progress has been made in track events over Olympic history, and how does this compare to progress in other sports? The figure below addresses these questions through the percent difference in times for past medalists — indicated by gold, bronze, and silver points — relative to their 2012 gold medal counterparts, with a sample of track events in the top row and swimming events in the bottom row. Across sports, distances, and event types, we see a remarkably similar pattern of rapid inital progress followed by a short period of stagnation during World War II, after which successively smaller improvements in times bring us to present day.

Progress in men's track times Progress in men's swimming times

This pattern of relative progress holds for other Olympic events as well, although the rate of improvement varies by sport, as shown by the difference in scales for the track and swimming events — the relative improvement in men’s swimming is about twice the observed rate for track events. For instance, comparing Olympic competitors in 1960 to today’s athletes, we see that sprinters were about 7% slower while swimmers were more than 15% slower. As Nate Silver has pointed out, this difference is likely due to a number of factors, including changes in swimming regulations and technology (e.g., pool designs, skin suits, etc.) as well as varying costs of participation for running compared to swimming. Note that the butterfly and individual medley events show similar patterns of progress to freestyle swimming events despite being established over 50 years later, further supporting this argument.

Taking a slightly different perspective on progress, the figure below shows medalist speeds for men’s and women’s track events over the last 50 years, from which we see that today’s sprinters are about 1 to 2 miles per hour faster than competitors in 1948. [2] Note that current day male sprinters in the 100 meter and 200 meter races run at nearly equal speeds of over 23 miles per hour, and longer distances are run at successively slower speeds. Somewhat surprisingly, 10K long distance runners maintain close to equal speeds to 5K competitors, despite running twice the distance. Also of note are FloJo’s long-standing 1988 world records in the 100 and 200 meters women’s races.

Track speeds by year for men and women

The other clear feature from these plots is the relative speed between male and female sprinters for the same event. As mentioned in a recent piece by The Atlantic, while one might imagine that this gender gap would decrease as we hit potential limits of human performance, men appear to consistently perform about 10 to 15 percent faster than women, as shown in the figure below. (A similar trend is found in swimming and other olympic sports.)

Track speeds by year for men and women

While the gap between top men and women is significant, don’t make the mistake of thinking it holds for all individuals. Indeed, to contrast Dan’s somewhat misleading introduction, I’ll note that Bethany destroyed each and every male member of Team Beeminder in the swim portion of the triathlon!

Footnotes

[1] Code to scrape the data and generate the plots is available on GitHub.

[2] While it’s initially tempting to place best-fit lines over these points, one quickly runs into the controversy around human speed limits, although this paper looks like an interesting approach.

 

Illustration by Kelly Savage

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  • http://twitter.com/jugander Johan Ugander

    On the topic of fitting curves to olympic times, there was a study picked up by Nature in 2004, “Athletics: Momentous sprint at the 2156 Olympics?” (Sept 2004). Much more important is the reply, also published in Nature under the title “Sprint research runs into a credibility gap” (Nov 2004).

    Where the first study claimed that women would surpass men in 2156, the reply pointed out that the analysis, a linear model, made a much more interesting prediction: by about 2636, we should expect to see 100m times less than zero.

  • http://beeminder.com Daniel Reeves

    I’m wondering if the consistency of the male/female gap is good evidence that the social/discriminatory hurdles have been overcome and the gap is pure biology. (No one doubts that there’s a biological gap, of course, just not clear whether the 10-15% gap among Olympians is all biology.)

  • Ken Krebs

    Another interesting take on performance records:

    “Human performance: Scaling in athletic world records”

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v404/n6775/full/404244a0.html

    Brief

    CommunicationsNature 404, 244 (16 March 2000) | doi:10.1038/35005165
    Human performance: Scaling in athletic world records
    Sandra Savaglio & Vincenzo Carbone

  • stevesailer

    I did a big study in 1997 showing that the most of the decline in the gender gap in Olympic running from 1976 through 1988 was due to steroids (i.e., artificial male hormones) having a bigger bang for the buck in women than in men. After Ben Johnson got caught at the 1988 Olympics and other runners got worried about getting caught, the gender gap got bigger. To break Flo-Jo’s 1988 women’s records would require a serious advance in doping technology.

    “Track & Battlefield: Everybody knows that the “gender gap” between men and women runners in the Olympics is narrowing. Everybody is wrong.”

    http://www.isteve.com/gendrgap.htm

  • stevesailer

    The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, which dispersed the East German sports doping complex, had a noticeable effect slowing top women runners.

  • sahel

    The modern Summer Olympic Games have been held every four years since the first Games in 1896 and Olympic records are recognised by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) in each event. The athletics events, which take place at each Games, are divided into four groups: track events (including sprints, middle- and long-distance running, hurdling and relays), field events (including javelin, discus, hammer, pole vault, long and triple jumps), road events (such as walks and the marathon) and combined events (the heptathlon and the decathlon). Women compete in 23 athletics events during the Games, and men compete in 24; while 21 of the events are the same for both men and women, men exclusively compete in the 50 km walk, the women’s combined event is the heptathlon while the men compete in the decathlon, and the short distance hurdles for women is contested over 100 m, ten metres shorter than the men’s event.

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