218 of you took our calibration quiz, not counting the 10% of submissions that had to be thrown out for not being complete or giving ranges with the min greater than the max or other sanity check failures. (Here's the raw data.) The bad news is that you're terrible at making 90% confidence... »
Tags: calibration,
decision theory,
overcoming bias,
overconfidence,
prediction,
psychology,
rationality,
wisdom of crowds
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