Tag Archive

Yes, You Are (Maybe) Overconfident

By dreeves

218 of you took our calibration quiz, not counting the 10% of submissions that had to be thrown out for not being complete or giving ranges with the min greater than the max or other sanity check failures. (Here's the raw data.) The bad news is that you're terrible at making 90% confidence... »

Are You Overconfident?

By dreeves

We shall now find out if Messy Matters readers are smarter than Mechanical Turkers. For each of the questions below, provide a numerical range that you are 90% sure contains the correct answer. In particular, if you have “no idea” then give a very wide range; and if you happen to be... »

The Oracle of Brackets

By Sharad Goel

It's March and you know what that means: Time for a little madness at the big dance! OK, so I don't know anything about basketball, but a minor point like that isn't going to stop me from entering a bracket in the office pool. Just so we're all on the same page, the NCAA College... »