During the 1936 U.S. presidential campaign, the popular magazine Literary Digest conducted a mail-in election poll that attracted over two million responses, a huge sample even by today’s standards. Unfortunately for them, size isn’t the only thing that matters. Literary Digest notoriously and erroneously predicted a landslide victory for Republican candidate Alf Landon. In reality,... »
Archive for September, 2013
Forecasting Elections with Dirty Data
Monday, September 30th, 2013
Tags: elections,
forecasting,
xbox
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About
Daniel Reeves is a co-founder of
Beeminder and
Sharad Goel is a Senior Researcher
at
Microsoft Research - New York City. They are both former members of the Microeconomics and Social
Systems (MESS) Group at Yahoo! Research.
Kelly Savage illustrates the
blog.
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