Are You Overconfident?

Sunday, February 28, 2010
By dreeves
How to estimate the distance from the Earth to the Moon, if you're the Little Prince.

We shall now find out if Messy Matters readers are smarter than Mechanical Turkers. For each of the questions below, provide a numerical range that you are 90% sure contains the correct answer. In particular, if you have “no idea” then give a very wide range; and if you happen to be... »

Prediction Without Markets

Thursday, January 14, 2010
By Sharad Goel
photo-finish

In the 2008 Summer Olympics Usain Bolt ran 100 meters in 9.69 seconds, earning the gold medal and garnering the international attention that comes with being the "fastest man in the world." While Bolt became a household name, his competitors didn't fare nearly as well: far fewer people... »

Scroogenomics vs Ulterior Motives (and Other Justifications for Gift Giving)

Thursday, December 31, 2009
By dreeves
scrooge vs santa

As a poser economist (as Jeff Ely calls me), I love to complain about the social inefficiency of gift giving. It's a terrible idea, guys! We waste 13 billion dollars a year on it! But I do appreciate that I have a tendency to pooh-pooh social conventions far too... »

What Can Search Predict?

Monday, November 30, 2009
By Sharad Goel
moviesearch

Statistical wisdom is sometimes found in unusual places. Take, for example, the following exchange in, “Whip It,” a story of roller-derby loving misfits: Team: (chanting, after a game) We're number two! We're number two! Coach: You guys came in second out of two teams. Team: Woo! So what’s the moral? Well, there's been a fair amount... »

Precious, Precious Daylight

Saturday, October 31, 2009
By dreeves
piggy

Tomorrow, after-work or after-school activities that require daylight come to an abrupt end for most of us in the US and Canada.  (Remember to "fall back" tonight!) There seems to be a lot of misdirected vitriol surrounding daylight saving time (DST). First, let's get this out of way: no one (worth arguing with) thinks daylight... »

Grammatical Interlude: The Two Acceptable Uses of Quotation Marks

Wednesday, September 30, 2009
By dreeves

Grammatical prescriptivism annoys me to no end. (No ending sentences with prepositions? Ridiculous! Don’t split infinitives? Poppycock!) Well, except when I do it… There are exactly two valid uses of quotation marks: when you mean something literally, and when you mean something nonliterally. It ought to be hard to mess that up. But the following are not valid uses: I... »